In recent months, tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia have flared up significantly, causing widespread concern among regional and international stakeholders. The escalating conflict centers around a controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which has sparked diplomatic disputes and regional instability. With the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) nearing its expiration, the importance of finding a diplomatic solution to these tensions has become ever more urgent.
As the situation unfolds, the United Nations has stepped in, urging both Somalia and Ethiopia to resolve their differences peacefully and within the framework of international law. Let’s break down the core issues and explore the key players involved in this escalating conflict, along with the global response.
Understanding the Core Issue: Ethiopia’s Maritime Agreement with Somaliland
At the heart of the Somalia-Ethiopia dispute is the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland earlier this year. This controversial agreement grants Ethiopia access to a 20-kilometer (12.4-mile) stretch of Red Sea coastline, in return for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence.
From Ethiopia’s perspective, this MoU represents an opportunity for shared growth and economic collaboration in the region. However, for Somalia, the agreement is seen as a direct threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Somalia has long viewed Somaliland as a breakaway region, and any recognition of Somaliland’s independence undermines Somalia’s claim to the territory.
As tensions have escalated, Somalia expelled the Ethiopian ambassador from Mogadishu, signaling just how deep the diplomatic rift has become.
Somalia’s Response: A Firm Stance on Ethiopian Forces
Somalia’s national security adviser, Hussein Moalim, made it clear in a recent interview that Somalia would not allow Ethiopian forces to participate in the upcoming African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) unless Ethiopia withdraws from the MoU.
“Somalia would not consider Ethiopian troops to be part of the new mission unless it withdraws from the illegal memorandum of understanding signed with [Somalia’s breakaway region of] Somaliland earlier this year,” Moalim asserted in a public statement.
This stance has created significant uncertainty regarding the composition of the new AU stabilization mission in Somalia. The current AU mission is set to expire, and plans for the new mission must be finalized quickly to ensure continued support for Somalia’s security forces.
Two Failed Mediation Rounds: Turkey’s Efforts to Broker Peace
In an effort to resolve the tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, Turkey has mediated two rounds of talks between the two countries. Unfortunately, neither round has produced any concrete results. Somalia’s State Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ali Omar Balcad, has emphasized that meaningful dialogue can only take place once issues of sovereignty and trust are addressed.
“First we need to solve the issue on our sovereignty infringement and second to restore the trust and the diplomatic relations between us, and then there comes the negotiation on the Ethiopia desire to access our sea and ports,” Balcad told VOA Somali in an interview.
With no progress being made in the talks, Somalia continues to insist that Ethiopia must abandon its claims under the MoU before any further diplomatic relations can be restored.
The International Response: UN Calls for Diplomacy
The United Nations has voiced serious concerns about the escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia. During a recent session of the UN Security Council, James Swan, acting special representative of the Secretary-General, urged both nations to seek a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. He emphasized that resolving the dispute is crucial not only for Somalia and Ethiopia but for the broader security of the region.
Similarly, Ambassador Robert Wood, the U.S. alternative representative for special political affairs, echoed these concerns, stating, “We are deeply concerned about rising tension between Ethiopia and Somalia and the negative impact it is having on shared security interests.”
The UN, along with various international partners such as the U.S., Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and the UK, has been actively working to encourage both nations to resolve their differences peacefully.
Somalia’s National Security Plans: AUSSOM and Beyond
While diplomatic efforts are underway, Somalia is also focused on its national security and the upcoming African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Hussein Moalim reiterated the commitment of international partners to support Somalia’s security and sovereignty.
“The partners reaffirmed their unwavering support for the federal government of Somalia in its efforts to attain stability and security across the nation,” Moalim said, following discussions in Washington this week.
This support is crucial for Somalia as it prepares to finalize funding options for the new peacekeeping mission, which is set to replace the AU mission that is expiring.
Ethiopia’s Defense: Denying Allegations
In response to Somalia’s accusations, Ethiopia has strongly denied any intentions of territorial expansion or interference in Somalia’s affairs. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Atske-Selassie stated during a meeting of the UN General Assembly last month that Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland is based on existing political agreements within Somalia. He firmly rejected Somalia’s claims that Ethiopia is using the fight against terrorism as a pretext for annexation.
“Ethiopia’s memorandum of understanding with Somaliland is based on existing political dispensation in Somalia,” Atske-Selassie said. “Our objective is shared growth and prosperity in the region.”
He went on to argue that Somalia’s allegations are an attempt to deflect attention from internal political issues.
The Role of Extremist Groups: Fueling the Fire
Amidst the escalating tensions, Somalia has accused Ethiopia of fueling local conflicts and empowering extremist groups. Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi claimed that Somalia had intercepted three illegal arms shipments from Ethiopia over the past three months. These arms, Fiqi asserted, have contributed to local conflicts and provided support to extremist factions in the region.
“We call these actions a clear violation of Somalia’s sovereignty,” Fiqi said, further deepening the diplomatic rift between the two countries.
Diplomacy on the Horizon?
While tensions remain high, there is still hope that a diplomatic solution can be reached. With international pressure mounting, both Somalia and Ethiopia may be forced to reconsider their current stances and return to the negotiating table.
As the situation continues to evolve, the focus will remain on Somalia’s security and the composition of the upcoming AUSSOM mission. Regional and international stakeholders will be closely watching to see whether Somalia and Ethiopia can find common ground and resolve their differences peacefully.
The Bigger Picture: Why This Matters
The escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia aren’t just a bilateral issue; they have wider implications for the security and stability of the Horn of Africa. A breakdown in relations between these two countries could embolden extremist groups in the region, destabilize local economies, and fuel broader conflicts.
With international stakeholders like the UN, the U.S., Turkey, and others pushing for a diplomatic solution, the coming weeks will be critical in determining the future of Somalia-Ethiopia relations. Both nations must find a way to resolve their differences for the sake of regional peace and prosperity.
Moving Forward with Diplomacy
In this complex situation, it’s clear that diplomacy is the only path forward. While tensions remain high, the international community’s involvement provides a glimmer of hope that Somalia and Ethiopia can resolve their differences and move toward a more peaceful future.
