The United Kingdom is preparing to choose the next prime minister on Thursday next week (4/7).
Around 46 million voters are eligible to participate in the country’s first general election since 2019. On May 30, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, of the Conservative Party, dissolved the British Parliament (something that is his legal prerogative), and called a general election.
The United Kingdom has a parliamentary election system — that is, voters go to the polls only to choose their parliamentarians, not a president. The country is divided into 650 districts — and each of these districts has a parliamentarian who represents that location.
The leader of the party that obtains a majority in Parliament is invited by King Charles III to form the new government and becomes Prime Minister, who leads the British government.
The leader of the second most-voted party becomes a leader of the opposition. If no party reaches an absolute majority, the one with the most votes is invited to try to negotiate a coalition to govern. If this is not possible, new elections are held.
Protocolally, the monarch appoints the prime minister after being convinced that he is capable of forming a government that will maintain the nation’s political stability.
In recent years, the United Kingdom has undergone major transformations and challenges.
In 2014, the people of Scotland — which is one of the four nations that make up the United Kingdom (along with England, Wales, and Northern Ireland) — rejected seceding from the country and becoming independent, with 55.3% of the vote. in a popular referendum.
In 2016, the people of the United Kingdom decided to leave the European Union, with 51.89% of the votes also in a referendum. The departure took place on January 31, 2020.
Recently, the United Kingdom has been facing several challenges: the economy is taking a long time to resume growth after the pandemic, with inflation only showing signs of falling in recent months; there is a large flow of immigrants trying to reach the country; and the public health system is facing a major crisis, with delays and long waiting lists for emergency treatments.
This year’s election could mark a major political turning point in the country.
The United Kingdom has been governed since 2010 by the Conservative Party — initially in coalition with the Liberal Democrat Party and since 2015 with a majority in Parliament. There were five prime ministers in 14 years of government: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.
Opinion polls suggest that the Labor Party — which governed the United Kingdom in the previous period, between 1997 and 2010, with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown — has a good chance of returning to power.
Polls from Friday last week (21/6) indicated that Labor has 40% of the electorate’s preferences, against 20% for the Conservatives.
The leaders of the parties — which in the case of the Conservatives is Sunak and in the case of Labor, the leader of the opposition Keir Starmer — are competing for the position of prime minister, whose election will be carried out by the new Parliament.
Other parties also contesting the election are Reform UK (radical right), the Liberal Democrats (centrist), the Scottish Nationalist Party and the Green Party.
A total of 4,515 candidates divided into 98 parties are running for 650 seats in Parliament, with 459 of them running as independent candidates.
What are the main themes?
Data from polling firm YouGov suggests the electorate’s top concerns revolve around the economy, immigration, healthcare and housing.
The economy has played a central role in these elections. Analysts believe that Sunak dissolved parliament and called the elections now precisely because he believed that at this time there was an improvement in the British economy — and that this could favor his party at the polls.
Since the end of the pandemic, the British economy has been facing a cost of living crisis due to inflation — which has been at its highest level in the last four decades.
The British economy continues to have annualized growth below 1% — and recently faced a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of zero or negative growth).
But last month, the same week as Sunak’s election announcement, officials reported that British inflation is now at a three-year low.
Launching his campaign, Sunak said: “Better days are on the horizon, but only if we get on with the plan to improve economic security and opportunities for all.”
The Conservatives say in their campaign that their measures were important in navigating the economy through global shocks almost in succession — the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and inflation. The government responded to the pandemic and the cost of living crisis with subsidies and incentives for companies and workers.
Labor, on the other hand, attributes part of the country’s economic problems to conservative management — especially due to public budget measures announced during Liz Truss’ short government.
Sunak and the Conservatives propose reducing the size of the State – after the expansion that occurred during the pandemic. A reduction in the number of civil servants would also allow a tax cut, which would bring greater dynamism to the economy.
Labor is proposing an investment plan in sustainable energy to boost the economy — similar to what was done by American President Joe Biden after winning the American elections.
The economic growth caused by this plan would increase revenue — allowing more government spending, according to the logic of Keir Starmer’s party.
The slow pace of the economy is also at the heart of two other problems for voters: health and housing.
The National Health Service (or NHS) is not coping with the high demand from patients. Official figures show there are more than 7 million people in the UK waiting for treatment. There are delays in practically every area — from emergency care to cancer surgery.
One of the problems of the NHS is the lack of money. The Health Foundation, a health consultancy, estimates that there is an annual shortage of £38 billion in investment in health.
“The health service is in crisis and all the main political parties have said they want to fix it – but the investment they have promised so far is far below what is needed to make improvements,” says Anita Charlesworth, an economist at the Health Foundation.
“Politicians need to be honest with the public about the scale of the challenge facing the NHS and the reality that an adequate NHS needs long-term sustainable investment.”
Another chronic problem in the country — which has been going on for many years — is the housing deficit. Some say the British property market is “broken”. On the one hand, property prices and rents have soared well above inflation in recent decades — enriching those who already owned property.
On the other hand, many young people today are unable to buy their own property. And people trying to buy face a surge in home loans — especially because of high interest rates caused by rising inflation.
In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of people living in rented homes, and this group has become the target of politicians during election times. Both Conservatives and Labor propose measures to make it more difficult to evict people who are having difficulty paying rent.
One of the most controversial topics of this election — and which is also at the top of voters’ concerns, according to surveys — is immigration. Official data indicates that annual immigration to the United Kingdom has tripled since the last election.
Rishi Sunak’s government has created a plan to send migrants who arrive in the country by boat across the English Channel by plane to Rwanda.
Labor accused the plan of being illegal and immoral. The project was challenged in the country’s courts — and was about to be implemented. But with the election called, Sunak decided to suspend the plan, which will only be resumed in the event of a conservative victory.
Sunak promises to reduce the number of visas given to immigrants. Labor also advocates reducing the number of immigrants. Starmer promises to invest in training the country’s workforce, to discourage companies from hiring people from outside the country.
Immigration is the main platform of Reform UK (radical right), the party of Nigel Farage, one of the leaders of Brexit — the campaign that culminated in the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union. Farage blames immigration for several of the country’s problems — such as the crises in hospitals and the housing sector. Recent surveys indicate that his party is the one that is growing the most in the last days before the election.
Regarding foreign policy, the parties also demonstrate some differences. Both Starmer and Sunak defend Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas attacks. There was even speculation that the Labor Party would speak out in favor of the creation of the State of Palestine — something that was not officially announced.
Both parties also promise to maintain their commitments to Ukraine in the fight against Russia. And neither party proposes reversing Brexit.
